000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081732
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE