000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061730
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 6 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN