000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061504
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM PDT SUN OCT 6 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE FORMATION POTENTIAL OF EASTERN
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

UPDATED...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN