000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292316
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REMAINS LIMITED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN