000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291731
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG