000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282331
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS TO
BE DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN