000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171729
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAS MARIAS. 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN