000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171130
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.  THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN