000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170536
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL...
IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE TROUGH...THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG