000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131143
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
WHILE THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE