000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130546
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI