000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122326
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA