000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121730
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY
TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH