000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050536
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH LAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEVELOPMENT AT
THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 
TO 10 MPH.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN