000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042342
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM 
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH LAND.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG