000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041731
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA