000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.  ALTHOUGH THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND NOT
VERY STRONG.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG