000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031745
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN A HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BEFORE THAT TIME WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN