000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030501
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH