000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302054
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

UPDATED FIRST SYSTEM FOR A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE
BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED. THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND.   THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
MORNING. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COULD FORM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WHICH
MAY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE