000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301750
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT A DAY AND DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALSO A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
MORNING. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COULD FORM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WHICH
MAY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA