000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291737
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIETTE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALSO A LOW CHANCE CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN