000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290518
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIETTE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JULIETTE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
JULIETTE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN