000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281920
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO
BE FORMING IN THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

UPDATED...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED
WIND CIRCULATION AND THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS FORMING. ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS
AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH COOLER
WATERS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 
1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.  CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN