000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281754
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.  THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH COOLER
WATERS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 
1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.  CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN