000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE CLOSED CIRCULATION.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHEN THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS
NOT EXPECTED.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOW WILL ALSO 
BE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN