000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280553
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW IS STILL PROBABLY PRODUCING
AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LOW WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH LAND OR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER BY
THURSDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI
AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOW WILL ALSO BE
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG