000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272344
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PREVIOUSLY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED...
AND DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN