000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271737
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE PORTION OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAD BEEN
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA IS DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY IN A DAY OR SO...AND
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN