000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271144
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A BROAD AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT COULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
COLDER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE