000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270556
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE DISTURBANCE HAS
A BROAD AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH COLDER WATER WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG