000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262338
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN