000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE