000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261143
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN