000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251124
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IVO...LOCATED WEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR ACAPULCO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AROUND MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN