000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250553
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. 
AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND
MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG