000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242314
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IVO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART