000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241740
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IVO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE