000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221131
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-FORMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AND IT APPEARS THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED TODAY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND REACH COLDER WATER WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY...THEREFORE CONDITIONS DO
NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. 

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG