000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220538
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT OR 
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT BEGINS
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. 

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN