000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212339
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AFTER 48
HOURS...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THIS
SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN