000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LUCAS MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH