000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202334
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN