000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH