000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181730
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH