000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181131
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH