000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121736
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST OF
140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON IT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
HAWAII.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN