000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121502
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK TO UPDATE FORMATION POTENTIAL OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. IF
ADDITIONAL DATA CONFIRM THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN