000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120504
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
REMAIN DISORGANIZED.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS WELL AS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG