000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN